Prevention of H1N1 in autumn
Posted on November 10, 2009
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With the advent of autumn, influenza A H1N1 influenza outbreak has reached its peak in the second wave of global spread. Prevention of Influenza A H1N1 influenza vaccine development, although the work in all major countries have achieved success, but according to national vaccine production capacity and the number of different populations, to promote the use of their own population, it needs at least two or three months time. Do not currently have sufficient vaccine supply situation, the influenza A H1N1 influenza prevention and control work is facing a severe test. China’s response to recent successive groups infected with influenza A H1N1 influenza on campus events, and the public should be how to scientifically and objectively look at the current influenza A H1N1 influenza outbreak dramatically on the rise, the reporter interviewed the Canadian mathematical model of York University, Director, Center for Infectious Diseases, Chinese scientist Professor Wu Jianhong.
Chien-Hung Wu is Canada’s senior research Industrial and Applied Mathematics seat winner, is currently leading a research team engaged in more than 20 infectious diseases, mathematical model analysis. In Canada this year, H1N1 influenza virus Influenza prevention and control of epidemic work, WU Jian-led central government to develop prevention and control strategy of the public health sector provides an important reference.
China is very effective in blocking the virus outside the
Chien-Hung Wu believes that the current situation, the Chinese government in the Influenza A H1N1 influenza outside the route of the “blocking” made a very effective work. Based on the mathematical model calculation, a new type of influenza spread in North America a few weeks, which usually arrive in China, first of all generate a number of imported cases, a few weeks, it will in the local outbreak. However, according to the current understanding of the situation, during the spring and summer, the epidemic did not happen in China, fulminant epidemic, therefore, can be said that the Chinese government blocking virus into the local community is doing very well. Effectively blocking the work of China has won at least 3 months of development and production of vaccines valuable time, but also for the future prevention and control of other diseases, was introduced to China has accumulated valuable experience.
Peak of the epidemic situation in the second wave of severe
Chien-Hung Wu that, due to different national conditions, China’s health sector on the epidemic prevention and control practices and the Canadian health sector’s approach is different. In Canada, due to the initial outbreak, influenza A H1N1 influenza severe rate and death rate is not higher than an ordinary flu, plus the health sector is basically laissez-faire attitude taken by the outbreak, but warned the public in general prevention and control knowledge, with an emphasis on severe measures taken to strengthen the medical patients. It is precisely because the Canadian health sector is not taken by the epidemic, as less as the attitude of many of Canada’s people are infected with the virus before, perhaps many do not have disease. Therefore, the domestic populations in Canada, many people have had immunity to the virus.
In China, the Government’s blocking work is very effective, in the spring and summer, very few people infected with the virus, so very few people have immunity. In the current going into the fall, if a second outbreak of the epidemic situation in China may be higher than North American countries, the situation should be more serious. WU Jian-with special emphasis on the need to make it clear to the public is now facing the epidemic situation is serious, and can not say that the Chinese government “block” approach there are any errors, because the effective “blocking” for China to grab valuable time to produce the vaccine.
The floating population and the epidemic control is the key to
Chien-Hung Wu said that although the production of vaccines in China to grab a precious time, but China is still faced with the situation should be much more difficult than in North America. The reason is China’s large population, and density, while a limited number of vaccine production can not satisfy all groups use.
In his view, the most difficult of which is a floating population of the outbreak control. The crowd is not a priority in vaccination, but their living environment, especially suitable for the epidemic spread, and these people seek medical treatment after infection was slow, and often miss the best time for drug treatment. Optimal treatment time is 48 hours after infection within the critically ill patients are mainly scattered in young adults age populations. Therefore, if China can not effectively control the epidemic spread of the mobile population, it is necessary to prevent the spread of the disease very difficult.
Chien-Hung Wu stressed that the Government and the media should make it clear to the public, the number of severe cases will have increased significantly, and there will be deaths occurred, which is in line with scientific laws, and to let the people be psychologically prepared in advance, do not panic too much. According to him, at the beginning of the epidemic this spring, the Government of Canada is one such explanation to the public. Up to now, the Canadian influenza A H1N1 flu infection death toll has reached 76. According to statistics, the Canadian deaths annually from influenza in the 4,000 to 6,000 each.
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